How Civil Wars Start

Societies plunge into chaos when two preconditions are met. The first is anocracy - the transition zone between democracy and dictatorship. Doesn't matter which way they're moving, it's the change, like a hermit crab getting a new shell, that creates the hazard.

The second is factionalization. We've got well past political parties and into a world where changing is as momentous as converting to a new religion. We mix a little bit less each day and it feels like violence is never very far away.

America has multiple aggrieved ethnic and sectarian groups. The only way to climb down from this is to focus on democratic participation, as South Africa did in the 1990s. The GOP are dragging us precisely in the wrong direction, making violent conflict inevitable.

A well-researched and clearly written book by someone who has extensively studied the histories and causes of civil wars worldwide. Reading it is sobering, but important.

Data-oriented with narrative recounting of the buildup to 20c civil war in Yugoslavia, Syria, N. Ireland, Myanmar, Indonesia. Anocracy - in a gray area between democracy and autocracy - and ethnic Factionalism, and less solidly the fuel of broadcast or social media, are the risk factors she's most worried about. The second half starts to talk about the current U.S. directly, but given the advice is to strengthen trust in democratic institutions and broaden the social safety net and prosecute domestic terrorists, well... she claims to be optimistic at the end.

Unfortunately, this is necessary reading for all Americans right now.